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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Predicts Above Normal Hurricane Season

Satellite Image of Hurricane Approaching Florida
NOAA is expecting an active Hurricane season
NOAA has released its early predictions for this year's hurricane season and has given a high probability of an active season.

The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook was released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), projecting an above-normal season. This season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, is expected to have an 85% chance of being above average, a 10% chance of being near normal, and a 5% chance of being below average. NOAA forecasts the following ranges: 17-25 Named Storms, 8-13 Hurricanes, 4-7 Major Hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 150%-245% of the median. These expected ranges are higher than the 1991 – 2020 seasonal averages.

The Atlantic hurricane region, encompassing the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, includes Florida, which is situated between the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. This means that Walt Disney World Resort and Universal Orlando Resort operations may be affected by hurricanes. Most of the forecasted activity is likely to occur during the peak months of the hurricane season, from August through October.

In the past 29 hurricane seasons, 20 were above average, five were near normal, and four were below average. Additionally, 9 of the 20 above-normal years were considered hyper-active (% median ACE ≥ 165%). NOAA plans to update its outlook in early August.

Depending on the severity and trajectory of a hurricane, the major theme parks in the area are expected to adjust their operating hours or shut down outdoor attractions.

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